Ukraine passes 1,000 days of conflict

Ukraine conflict

The war in Ukraine reached a pivotal moment this week as it passed the 1,000-day mark. Western powers significantly increased their military support for Ukraine, while Russia escalated its nuclear threats.

Late Sunday night, reports emerged that President Biden had authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to strike targets inside Russia, a major policy shift.

Shortly after, Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles into Russia’s Bryansk region.

The exact number of missiles fired and intercepted varies between Russian and U.S. accounts, but this marked the first time American-made missiles struck Russian soil in the conflict. On Wednesday, Ukraine launched U.K.-supplied missiles at targets in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops have captured a roughly 600-square-kilometer area of Russian territory.

Later in the week, Biden approved the supply of advanced weapon systems to Ukraine, signaling strong Western support. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin amended Russia’s nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons.

Ukraine conflict reaches 1,000 days

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1860622473126961163

The doctrine now considers an attack from a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear power as a joint assault on Russia. The Kremlin also deployed a new hypersonic missile, the “Oreshnik,” to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, with Putin claiming it is unstoppable. Despite the posturing, many in the West view Russia’s nuclear threats with skepticism, believing that China, a crucial partner for Moscow, would strongly oppose the use of nuclear weapons.

Both Putin and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the war had taken on a global character, with the U.S. and U.K. more deeply involved than ever, raising concerns about potential escalation. The timing of these developments may be influenced by the upcoming transition from the Biden administration to President-elect Donald Trump, who has vowed to end the war and suggested compromises for Ukraine. Some believe Trump’s leadership could expedite the conflict’s end through diplomacy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed a desire to end the war through “diplomatic means” in 2025, and former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba suggested that Trump might bring a different approach to the conflict. Rather than signaling an uncontrolled escalation, this week’s events may mark the beginning of a strategic shift aimed at establishing the strongest negotiating position for potential future peace talks.

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