Former President Donald Trump has a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia, according to a new poll of likely voters. The poll, conducted by the University of Georgia, found Trump leading Harris 47% to 43%, just outside the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. With 8% of likely voters still undecided, the race remains highly competitive.
As early voting enters its second week, both campaigns continue to funnel resources into the battleground state. “The stability of the race is remarkable. Neither side can claim victory just yet,” said Trey Hood, a political scientist at the University of Georgia who oversaw the poll.
“The next two weeks will be critical.”
One key aspect of the poll is Harris’ struggle to solidify support among Black voters, a crucial segment of the Democratic base. Although about three-quarters of Black voters support Harris, this is fewer than the proportion that supported Joe Biden in 2020 when he narrowly flipped Georgia. Importantly, 20% of Black voters remain undecided, while 8% say they will vote for Trump.
This points to potential apathy among Black voters, rather than a shift to Trump. The poll also revealed that 11% of Democrats are undecided. This indicates Harris has more work to do to consolidate her base, with little time left to do so.
In contrast, Trump has strong support among his core constituencies. He has secured 95% of Republican voters and over 80% of conservative voters. However, he is tied with Harris among voters aged 65 and older—a demographic typically favorable to the GOP—and trails Harris among independent voters, 41% to 35%.
Trump narrowly leads Harris in Georgia
The poll, conducted from October 7 to October 16 among 1,000 likely Georgia voters, is the last survey before the November 5 election. As both campaigns plan extensive tours across the state, the gender gap has become even more pronounced.
Trump leads among men 59% to 28%, while Harris is ahead among women 55% to 37%. Some voters expressed clear preferences. “I don’t think people struggled as much under Trump.
Harris hasn’t convinced me she can make things better,” said Hunter Robert Moore, a Bartow County fishing guide. On the other hand, Deborah Cotton, who works in foreign relations, said, “I don’t trust Trump. To me, Harris is the lesser of two evils.”
Voter enthusiasm for their respective candidates has surged, with 96% of likely voters expressing at least some excitement about their picks.
“I’m excited to elect the first Black woman president, but mostly, I just don’t want to hear about Donald Trump anymore,” said Everett Rucker, a Norcross Democrat. Regarding election outcomes, 80% of Democrats believe Harris will win, while a similar proportion of Republicans think Trump will prevail. Independents are more uncertain, with a third unsure who will win.
While voters are optimistic about their candidates, a majority believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Approximately 60% of respondents feel Georgia is on the wrong track, a sentiment shared by most Republicans and nearly two-thirds of independents. Economic concerns, such as inflation and job security, top the list of issues that matter most to voters.
Georgians are split in their opinions about Harris and Trump, with each receiving mixed reviews from independents. One in five voters still lack enough information on the running mates.
