The race in the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania is closer than any other swing state contest headed into Election Day. Polling averages show a neck-and-neck race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with Trump holding a narrow edge. As of the latest reports, Trump leads by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania, according to FiveThirtyEight.
In an Emerson College/The Hill poll released Monday, Trump is ahead by one point, 49%-48%. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released Sunday shows a 48%-48% tie. However, Harris leads in some other polls.
She is up by two points, 50%-48%, in a Marist poll. Harris also has a one-point edge, 48%-47%, in a Washington Post poll, both published last week. Trump holds the lead in several other polls as well.
He is up 50%-49% in a recent poll of likely Pennsylvania voters. Trump also leads 47%-46% in another poll published Wednesday. Turnout could play a significant role in the final outcome.
Trump had a 47%-46% lead in a poll of all registered voters.
Trump holds slight lead
However, among voters who are extremely motivated to vote, the race is tied at 48%-48%.
Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes, is more likely to tip the election than any other battleground state. Pennsylvanians have picked the winner in 10 of the last 12 presidential elections, making it a pivotal state. If Harris wins Pennsylvania and follows the trend of also winning Wisconsin and Michigan, she is almost certain to secure the presidency.
Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s during the 2016 election. In 2020, Biden reversed the trend, with Pennsylvania helping him secure the necessary Electoral College votes. Economic issues are the top concern for Pennsylvania voters, with 82% citing the economy, followed by inflation at 78%, and the state of democracy at 70%, according to a CBS/YouGov poll.
Trump and his allies have attacked Harris over her previous stance on fracking. Despite her 2019 statement favoring a fracking ban, Harris has since indicated support for measures like the Inflation Reduction Act, which opened new gas leases, reflecting a nuanced stance. The state has a divided legislature, with a Democratic governor and control of the House, while Republicans hold the Senate majority.
Final results could take several days to tabulate, but wait times might be shorter than during the Covid-19 pandemic due to expected lower levels of mail-in voting. Polls close at 8 p.m. EST on Election Day. No Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948.
Therefore, securing Pennsylvania could be crucial for Harris’s electoral success.
