A French individual known as “Theo” made significantly more money than originally thought by betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Theo placed over $30 million on Trump’s win using the crypto-based trading platform Polymarket. Initial estimates put Theo’s profit at around $48 million.
However, blockchain data firm Chainalysis has updated this figure to nearly $84 million. “We identified a 10th address associated with ‘Theo’ which increases the estimated total profit by $4.8M to $83.5M,” Chainalysis announced. An additional $2.1 million profit is also suspected but remains unconfirmed.
Millions of Americans placed bets on the election outcome in the weeks leading up to Election Day.
Theo’s bet on Trump scrutinized
Polymarket, the largest prediction market, showed Trump with a 58.1% chance of victory versus Vice President Kamala Harris at 41.9%.
Other platforms like Kalshi, Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and PredictIt also reported heavy betting activity on the election. Theo, who expressed no political agenda, stated during a Zoom call last week, “My intent is just making money.” Initially believed to have four Polymarket accounts, Chainalysis now suggests that Theo could have as many as 11 accounts. Polymarket, a relatively new trading platform created four years ago, has proven to be a compelling way to engage American voters throughout the election cycle.
However, the platform is now under investigation by French regulators. The French National Gaming Authority is examining Polymarket’s operation and compliance with France’s gambling legislation. The investigation gained traction after the discovery of Theo’s large bet, which influenced the platform’s odds in favor of Trump.
Polymarket is not authorized to operate in France and had previously settled charges from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 for operating illegally in the U.S.
The regulatory focus on Polymarket follows a broader trend of increased oversight of cryptocurrency and blockchain-based platforms, as traditional financial authorities seek to impose more stringent controls to protect investors and ensure market integrity.
