A mysterious French investor has placed bets totaling $45 million on former President Donald Trump winning the upcoming election. This has sparked curiosity and speculation about their identity and motives. According to prediction market website Polymarket, the individual is a French national with extensive trading experience and a background in financial services.
The company has disclosed to the New York Times DealBook that the high roller uses four accounts to place multiple small transactions. This strategy likely aims to prevent the cost of betting on Trump’s victory from escalating too quickly, ensuring better odds for their wagers. Polymarket has also communicated with the whale, who agreed not to open further accounts without notifying the company.
Polymarket allows users to bet on various outcomes, including political events, using cryptocurrency. However, Americans have been barred from using the platform since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) intervention in 2022 for allegedly offering illegal trading options.
French investor places high-stakes bets
Despite rivals like Kalshi reopening the door to election betting recently, Polymarket remains closed to U.S. citizens. The mysterious French investor has not only placed significant bets on Trump but has also been active in betting against Vice President Kamala Harris. Over a period of 10 hours, one account alone made more than 450 distinct bets against Harris securing the presidency, with wager amounts ranging from less than $5 to tens of thousands of dollars.
Other notable bets include wagers on whether a Republican will win the presidency and the popular vote (betting “yes”), and whether a Democrat will win Michigan’s presidential election (betting “no”). One of the most active accounts, identified as Fredi9999, holds $19 million in predominantly political bets, including a $13.8 million wager on Trump to win the election. In response to the attention and controversy surrounding these election bets, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan emphasized that the platform is non-partisan and transparent.
“Polymarket is not about politics. The vision never was to be a political website, and it still isn’t,” Coplan stated. This high-stakes political betting, especially by such a high-profile and enigmatic figure, continues to raise questions and garner significant attention as the election approaches.
