Democratic Sen. Jon Tester faces a tough battle in his bid for a fourth term in Montana. Polls show him trailing Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, by over five points.
Tester hopes his reputation as a genuine Montanan and an abortion referendum will boost Democratic turnout. In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown is fighting to keep his seat in an increasingly red state.
His opponent, businessman Bernie Moreno, argues Brown is too liberal for Ohio, which went for Trump by eight points in the last two elections. Brown emphasizes his blue-collar roots and union support. Michigan’s open Senate seat, vacated by retiring Sen.
Debbie Stabenow, is a fierce contest between Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers.
Slotkin holds a slight poll lead and touts her moderate crossover appeal.
Senate seats vulnerable for Democrats
Rogers has attacked Slotkin on social issues and aligned himself with Trump.
Pennsylvania’s three-term Democratic Sen. Bob Casey faces well-funded Republican Dave McCormick. Casey’s poll advantage has been shrinking as McCormick criticizes his long Washington tenure.
Casey has targeted McCormick’s Connecticut ties and China business dealings. In Arizona, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake are vying for the open seat of Sen.
Kyrsten Sinema. Gallego has maintained a steady lead despite Lake’s Trump association. He has rebranded as a moderate to appeal to a broad voter spectrum.
“If polls are accurate, Tester faces likely defeat against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, an ex-Navy Seal endorsed by Trump,” said Simone Pathe, a Congressional News reporter. “A win for Sheehy could tip the Senate into Republican hands unless Democrats unseat GOP incumbents elsewhere.”
Democrats must defend 23 Senate seats in 2024, many in pro-GOP states, while Republicans are defending just 11 seats in solidly red states. The GOP needs a net gain of one seat to flip the Senate, assuming they don’t win the White House.
