With just a week until Election Day, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is neck and neck in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground state with significant electoral votes at stake. Trump benefits from voters’ negative perceptions of the current state of affairs and the belief among many that they would be better off financially with him in the White House. More Pennsylvania voters say the country was doing better during Trump’s presidency compared to now.
Harris leads Trump among voters who consider the state of democracy a major issue. She also has an advantage in certain personal qualities, with more voters believing she has the cognitive health to serve as president and viewing her positions as more reasonable compared to Trump’s, which are often seen as extreme. The race has seen little movement since September.
Trump’s advantage lies in the economic domain, where he leads among those who prioritize financial well-being and border security as major voting factors.
Harris vs. Trump in Pennsylvania
However, when it comes to the state of democracy, neither candidate has a clear lead.
In terms of personal qualities, a larger segment of Pennsylvania voters perceive Trump’s positions as more extreme, and many of them are backing Harris. Although neither candidate is personally liked by a majority, Harris benefits from a smaller pool of voters who dislike her but still plan to vote for her. Harris performs well with many of the demographics that President Biden excelled with in 2020, while Trump retains strong support from his previous backers.
White voters without a college degree, who make up a significant portion of the electorate, continue to favor Trump, largely due to their belief that his policies are better for their financial situation. This survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania between October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted based on gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and past voting behavior.
The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.
