Tropical Storm #Helene has formed in the NW Caribbean – the 8th Atlantic named storm of the 2024 Atlantic #hurricane season. Helene is the latest calendar year 8th Atlantic named storm formation since 2014. pic.twitter.com/OQ0cxUzSqd
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 24, 2024
Tropical Storm Helene began to intensify early Wednesday morning and is expected to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has indicated steady to rapid intensification, with models showing potential landfall as a major hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend area Thursday night. Helene is forecasted to produce rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals reaching up to 12 inches, posing a considerable flooding risk to the southeastern U.S. The National Weather Service in Melbourne estimates that local areas could receive one to four inches of rain, with some areas experiencing up to six inches.
Potential TC 9 is forecast to become a major (Category 3) #hurricane before approaching the northeastern Gulf Coast. Since 2000, 8 major (Category 3+) hurricanes have made Florida landfall:
2004: Charley, Jeanne
2005: Dennis, Wilma
2017: Irma
2018: Michael
2022: Ian
2023: Idalia pic.twitter.com/FlKcoWv6rJ— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) September 23, 2024
As of the latest update, Helene is located about 45 miles east-northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, carrying maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving northwest at 9 mph. The storm’s path will bring it near the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Thursday, and ultimately to the Big Bend coast of Florida late Thursday. Several hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for various areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Mexico.
Storm surge predictions indicate significant coastal impacts, with some areas potentially seeing surges of 10-15 feet. Even in regions not directly in Helene’s path, Central Florida will feel significant impacts. Anticipated threats include heavy rain, potential flooding, gusty winds, and tornadoes.
Helene Strengthening
As of 8:00 PM EDT, Tuesday, September 24 the center of Helene was located near 19.8, -85.3 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.Visit https://t.co/meemB5vfqp for storm updates… pic.twitter.com/Poqw75eTZp
— National Weather Service (@NWS) September 25, 2024
storm impacts reaching Florida coast
The National Weather Service warns of tropical-storm-force winds extending several hundred miles from Helene’s center, with potential gusts reaching 60 mph. Current predictions have Helene intensifying rapidly as it moves north in the Gulf of Mexico.
Winds could reach up to 120 mph in the next 36 hours, which would classify Helene as a Category 3 hurricane. AccuWeather forecasters suggest that the storm could even reach Category 4 strength with maximum sustained winds ranging between 130 and 156 mph when it moves into the extremely warm Gulf waters. According to the NHC, landfall is expected along the northeast coast of the Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Thursday night, with the highest probability in the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle, particularly the Big Bend area.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva noted that “everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” as this could become the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. this season. Residents in affected areas are urged to complete preparations to protect lives and property immediately. This includes following evacuation orders from local officials.
Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean, potentially causing significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and later affecting Florida and the southeastern United States.
